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some forecasts for 2023 from various organizations

In the past 2022, we’ve experienced many conflicts in the real world, in the financial field and in ideology.  Also, China shifted its policy against covid-19 in the end of 2022.  How the world will be in 2023.  Below is a collective summary of some forecasts from various organizations.

 

OPEC: OPEC's production dropped in November,2022 after the wider OPEC+ alliance pledged steep output cuts to support the market amid the worsening economic outlook and weakening prices.  it expected to see robust global oil demand growth in 2023 with potential economic upside coming from a relaxation of China's zero-COVID policies.  The 2023 economic growth forecast steady at 2.5%.  

 

Goldman Sachs: Goldman expects the oil market to end the current quarter with a surplus of 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), while seasonally lower demand would leave the first quarter next year with a surplus of 1.3 million bpd. It forecasts global demand will grow by 2 million bpd in 2023, as China reopens and international travel recovers.

For 2023r, Goldman said it sees the world’s economy is expected to grow at a lower-than-expected pace of 1.8 percent in 2023 as the United States’ resilience contrasts with a European mild recession and a bumpy reopening in China.

Goldman remains concerned about political and geopolitical shocks, which might impact the global economy through increased uncertainty, tighter financial conditions, and negative consequences on commodity supply. In light of this, Goldman Sachs’ cautiously optimistic forecast for the global economy remains loaded with substantial risks.

 

IMF: Global economic activity is experiencing a broad-based and sharper-than-expected slowdown, with inflation higher than seen in several decades.  Global growth is forecast to slow from 6.0 percent in 2021 to 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2.7 percent in 2023. This is the weakest growth profile since 2001 except for the global financial crisis and the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Global inflation is forecast to rise from 4.7 percent in 2021 to 8.8 percent in 2022 but to decline to 6.5 percent in 2023 and to 4.1 percent by 2024. Monetary policy should stay the course to restore price stability, and fiscal policy should aim to alleviate the cost-of-living pressures while maintaining a sufficiently tight stance aligned with monetary policy. Structural reforms can further support the fight against inflation by improving productivity and easing supply constraints, while multilateral cooperation is necessary for fast-tracking the green energy transition and preventing fragmentation.

 

WTO: WTO economists now predict global merchandise trade volumes will grow by 3.5% in 2022—slightly better than the 3.0% forecast in April. For 2023, however, they foresee a 1.0% increase—down sharply from the previous estimate of 3.4%.

The new WTO forecast estimates world GDP at market exchange rates will grow by 2.8% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023 — the latter is 1.0 percentage points lower than what was previously projected.

 

 

OECD: projects global growth at a modest 3% this year before slowing further to just 2.2% in 2023. Represents around USD 2.8 trillion in foregone global output in 2023.
The energy prices rise, especially in Europe, aggravating inflationary pressures at a time when the cost of living was already rising rapidly around the world due to lingering impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. With businesses across many economies passing through higher energy, transportation and labour costs, inflation is reaching levels not seen since the 1980s, forcing central banks to rapidly tighten monetary policy settings faster than anticipated.

The inflation and energy supply shock has led the OECD to revise its previous growth projections downward worldwide. Annual GDP growth is projected to slow to around 1/2% in the United States in 2023, and 1/4% in the euro area, with risks of deeper declines in several European economies during the winter months.

Inflation is projected to recede gradually through 2023 in most G20 countries as tighter monetary policy takes effect and global growth slows. Headline inflation is projected to ease from 8.2% this year to 6.6% in 2023 in the G20 economies, and fall from 6.2% this year to 4% in 2023 in the G20 advanced economies.

 

The above is for reference only. Although all authorities predict poor performance in 2023. All we can do is make informed decisions and take the right actions to get us through. 

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